Nearly 60 percent of Iowa voters support gay marriage or civil unions, according to poll results released today by the University of Iowa.
The statewide survey of 586 Iowa voters found that 28.1 percent support gay marriage, while another 30.2 percent oppose gay marriage, but support civil unions. Thirty-two percent of respondents oppose both gay marriage and civil unions. Nearly 10 percent of respondents said they didn’t know or refused to answer, the U of I reported….
Read the full story by Erin Jordan at the Des Moines Register.
Why did it appear that California’s Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage, seemed to be going down to defeat and yet was approved by voters?
…Double-digit leads held by the “no” side in the pre-television advertising stages of the campaign declined precipitously as the TV ad campaigns hit in mid-to-late-September. This suggests that the “yes” campaign advertising was having its effect.
This drift in voter preferences away from the “no” side must have continued into and through the final weekend of the election as the churches and various religious groups made their pitches to rally the support of their congregations for a “yes” vote. There is evidence that their efforts succeeded. When comparing the findings from The Field Poll’s final pre-election survey to the Edison Media Research exit poll of voters, the biggest differences related to the turnout and preferences of frequent church-goers and Catholics….
My take is that regular church-goers, and especially Catholics, were more prone than other voters to be influenced by last-minute appeals to conform to orthodox church positions when voting on a progressive social issue like same-sex marriage.
Read the entire op-ed essay by Mark DiCamillo in the San Francisco Chronicle.
Was the passage of Prop. 8 always a foregone conclusion, despite poll results throughout the summer and early fall showing most likely voters opposed it? Or were the major polls correct, and the sentiment of California voters actually shifted in the weeks leading up to Election Day, from opposition to support?
….The existence of a racial Bradley effect — i.e., a pattern in which the polls’ accuracy is affected by significant numbers of racist Whites lying to pollsters and saying they would vote for a Black candidate — has been widely disputed, and wasn’t evident in polling this year.
But was there a gay Bradley effect in California?
Prof. Gregory Herek compares the Prop. 8 outcome with pre-election polls and considers whether they provide evidence that California voters misrepresented their true opinions to pollsters.
Read the full analysis by Prof. Gregory Herek at Beyond Homophobia.
A new poll of California voters released by SurveyUSA shows the proposition losing, 50% to 47%, with 3% still undecided. Because the poll’s margin of error due to sampling is 4 points, the race is essentially tied.
Over the past month, SurveyUSA polls show that opposition to Prop. 8 grew by 8 points, while support remained unchanged. Only 42% of likely voters opposed Prop. 8 in an October 6 poll, and 45% opposed it on October 17. The proportions of likely Yes voters in those polls were, respectively, 47% and 48%.
Until the release of the latest results, recent SurveyUSA polls have registered less opposition to Prop. 8 than statewide surveys conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and the Field Poll. However, the 50% figure in today’s release is close to the 49% No vote estimated by a Field Poll earlier this week, and the 52% recorded in last week’s PPIC poll.
The Field and PPIC polls found only 44% of likely voters support Prop. 8, compared to 47% in today’s SurveyUSA poll.
The SurveyUSA report warns that the outcomes for Proposition 8 and Proposition 4 remain highly unpredictable:
“The visibility of the Propositions, and the foregone conclusion that Obama will carry California, creates a dynamic where a number of voters in California are focused only on the Propositions, and their vote in the presidential contest is more of an “oh, by the way.” In such cases, it is best for pollsters to be circumspect, safest to watch and learn.
Partisans should not marshal this data as evidence of anything other than: every vote will be critical; Proposition 4 and Proposition 8 could go either way.”
Read the poll results at Survey USA.
Just in time for Halloween, the latest Field Poll brings some scary news for marriage equality supporters. But the results might also create a well-founded sense of foreboding among those who oppose marriage equality and want to write their views into the California constitution.
The poll indicates the Proposition 8 race has tightened considerably. Support for the constitutional amendment still hasn’t reached the 50% mark, but opposition has dropped to 49%.
Moreover, the 5-point gap between the 44% of likely voters who support Prop. 8 and the 49% who oppose it is now within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.3 points. In other words, the true proportion of YES voters in the population could range as high as 47.3% and the true number of NO voters could be as low as 45.7%. About 7% of likely voters are still undecided.
In an extended analysis of the Field Poll, Prof. Gregory Herek reviews the survey’s findings concerning which segments of the California electorate support and oppose Prop. 8, and which arguments for and against the measure hold sway. He also discusses the role of antigay prejudice in making the ballot measure race so close a contest.
Read the full analysis by Prof. Gregory Herek at Beyond Homophobia .
According to a new Field Poll Proposition 8 is opposed by a plurality of likely voters (49%), with 44% supporting it. The poll, whose results were reported on October 30 on the 10 pm KTVU newscast, has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, which means that these figures represent a statistical tie.
Read the full report at the Field Poll website.
When asked whether they favored or opposed Arkansas Proposed Initiative Act 1, which would prevent anyone who cohabitates outside a valid marriage from adopting or fostering a child, 55 percent opposed the initiative. Some proponents have advocated for Act 1 to prevent adoption and foster parenting by gays and lesbians, and the 2007 Arkansas Poll had revealed that 53 percent of Arkansans supported prohibiting adoption and fostering by gays and lesbians. Even so, when it comes to voting for Act 1, Arkansans appear to be rejecting a blanket prohibition.
Read more by at Arkansas Times.
According to a newly released statewide poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), Proposition 8 is losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent.
Read the full report at the PPIC website.
Ever since California county clerks began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples last June, Proposition 8 — the proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate marriage equality — has appeared likely to lose at the ballot box. Throughout the summer, statewide surveys from the Field Research Corporation and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) consistently found that the measure lacked majority support. In fact, it was opposed by more than 50% of likely voters.
But earlier this month, a new poll of Californians’ voting intentions on Proposition 8 was released, sponsored by several CBS local affiliates and conducted by SurveyUSA. Here’s a section of the news report on the poll findings:
According to the poll, likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure’s opponents….
This was a surprising shift, and the poll results received a lot of media attention….
While warning that marriage equality supporters can’t afford to be complacent and that voter turnout will determine the fate of Prop. 8, Prof. Gregory Herek registers his skepticism about the recent polling data. From his analysis, he concludes that the statewide polls conducted by Field and the PPIC — both of which show Proposition 8 losing — are probably more accurate than the SurveyUSA polls, which have shown the ballot measure ahead or tied.
Because of their methodological limitations, Prof. Herek concludes that the SurveyUSA polls probably state the number of likely voters who support Prop. 8 more or less accurately, but they most likely undercount those who oppose it.
Read the full analysis by Prof. Gregory Herek at Beyond Homophobia.
An effort to rewrite the Florida Constitution to prohibit gay marriage is falling short of the numbers needed for victory in the Nov. 4 election, a Sun Sentinel and Florida Times-Union poll shows.
The poll of 600 likely voters shows support for Amendment 2 at 53 percent, less than the 60 percent approval rate required to change the constitution….
Backers of the gay-marriage ban say the poll should be a wakeup call to conservatives to vote. Opponents say the poll shows they have made progress in explaining that the proposal could jeopardize domestic partnership benefits that many governments and companies offer straight and gay employees….
Read the full story by Scott Wyman & Josh Hafenbrack at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
Asian-Americans in California overwhelmingly oppose a ballot measure that would ban gay marriage in the state, according to a groundbreaking survey released Wednesday.
The poll found that 57 percent of Asian-Americans likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election oppose Proposition 8, which would reverse May’s California Supreme Court ruling that gave gay and lesbian couples the right to marry. Only 32 percent planned to vote yes. Eleven percent were undecided.
Nearly 1,900 Asian-Americans in the state were interviewed by telephone in eight languages from Aug. 18 to Sept. 26. The survey was the largest scientific poll of Asian-American voters ever done — both nationally and in California….
Read the full story by Ken McLaughlin at the San Jose Mercury News.
The finding by the Connecticut Supreme Court that it was unconstitutional for gay and lesbian families to be denied marriage equality has spurred anti-gay activists in that state to pursue an attempt to call for a constitutional convention that would allow Conn. citizens to create an anti-gay ballot initiative and then vote gay and lesbian family rights out of legality….
But anti-gay proponents of such a constitutional convention may find that popular sentiment is not with them: a recent poll shows that more than half of Conn, voters favor the inclusion of gay and lesbian families into the arena of marriage rights….
Read the full story by Kilian Melloy in Edge Boston.
Fifty-three percent of Connecticut residents support Friday’s historic ruling by the state Supreme Court that legalizes gay marriage, while 42 percent of residents polled said they do not.
The weekend poll, taken for The Courant by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut, showed a wide difference of opinion among Democrats and Republicans over an emotional social issue….
Among independent voters, the total was almost the same as the overall result: 52 percent support the decision and 44 percent oppose it. The poll of 502 adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Some analysts have said that weekend polling can generate a skewed result because it is more difficult to reach a representative sample of residents who are home on a busy weekend. But Best said the polling center used both listed and unlisted telephone numbers in a random-digit dialing technique that made him confident of the poll results….
Read the full story by Christopher Keating at the Hartford Courant.
“Red Alert” shouts the banner headline in the current Bay Area Reporter, reflecting a recent poll showing California’s Proposition 8 moving from far behind to ahead.
Some attribute this shift to the Mormon Church’s massive funding of a Yes on 8 TV advertising blitz, which featured Gavin Newsom cheering gay marriage. But others are wondering if so many California activists are focused on Obama that there is less energy and money left to defeat Prop 8. Given how many activists are spending weekends either in Nevada or calling Florida for Obama, the perception that this could result in Prop 8’s passage is understandable.
But perception is not reality, and Prop 8 is unlikely to win. Voter fixation on the presidential race and economic crisis has left many to ignore state and local propositions, so that an early October poll is equivalent to September numbers in a normal year. Prop 8 still has not reached the 50% mark that initiatives need to win, and so long as activists do not get complacent, the measure will lose handily….
But the recent poll has driven away any hint of complacency that may have existed among gay marriage backers. And by re-galvanizing those concerned about this fundamental human rights issue, the pollsters have contributed to Prop 8’s eventual defeat.
Read the entire essay by Randy Shaw at Beyond Chron.
Opponents of a campaign to ban same-sex marriage in California said Tuesday that a new poll shows them in danger of losing — unless people step forward with more contributions to pay for No on 8 television commercials.
Although the opposition has enjoyed a healthy lead in several other polls, officials with the No on 8 campaign held a conference call with reporters Tuesday to announce that their own poll showed the measure would pass by four points. Opponents attributed the result to fewer television ads, which is, in turn, a result of the No on 8 campaign falling behind in fundraising….
Read the full story by Jessica Garrison in the Los Angeles Times.