Why did it appear that California’s Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage, seemed to be going down to defeat and yet was approved by voters?
…Double-digit leads held by the “no” side in the pre-television advertising stages of the campaign declined precipitously as the TV ad campaigns hit in mid-to-late-September. This suggests that the “yes” campaign advertising was having its effect.
This drift in voter preferences away from the “no” side must have continued into and through the final weekend of the election as the churches and various religious groups made their pitches to rally the support of their congregations for a “yes” vote. There is evidence that their efforts succeeded. When comparing the findings from The Field Poll’s final pre-election survey to the Edison Media Research exit poll of voters, the biggest differences related to the turnout and preferences of frequent church-goers and Catholics….
My take is that regular church-goers, and especially Catholics, were more prone than other voters to be influenced by last-minute appeals to conform to orthodox church positions when voting on a progressive social issue like same-sex marriage.
Read the entire op-ed essay by Mark DiCamillo in the San Francisco Chronicle.