Was the passage of Prop. 8 always a foregone conclusion, despite poll results throughout the summer and early fall showing most likely voters opposed it? Or were the major polls correct, and the sentiment of California voters actually shifted in the weeks leading up to Election Day, from opposition to support?
….The existence of a racial Bradley effect — i.e., a pattern in which the polls’ accuracy is affected by significant numbers of racist Whites lying to pollsters and saying they would vote for a Black candidate — has been widely disputed, and wasn’t evident in polling this year.
But was there a gay Bradley effect in California?
Prof. Gregory Herek compares the Prop. 8 outcome with pre-election polls and considers whether they provide evidence that California voters misrepresented their true opinions to pollsters.
Read the full analysis by Prof. Gregory Herek at Beyond Homophobia.